Maritime strike

Replace warships with Maritime-strike aircraft

Australia should look at longer-range stealth aircraft to deter hostile navies.

Currently Australia relies on

72 x F-35A (Stealthy but short range)
24 x F/A-18 F (Not stealthy)
14 x P8 Poseidon (Boeing 737 airframe)

These are not suited to maritime strike as:

The F-35 is a relatively short range aircraft for Australia.
Non-stealthy F/A-18 can not be used against aircraft-carrier fleets.
The P8’s would not survive against a superpower adversary.

Range needed for maritime strike

What the 500km F-35A combat radius covers

What 500 km F-35 combat radius looks like from northern Australian bases.

This indicates the F-35 is not really suitable as a maritime interdiction aircraft for Australia. For more on this see these ASPI articles:

For longer range deployments air tankers are needed which is not viable in contested air space.

What a 1,200km combat radius covers

What a more adequate 1,200 km combat radius looks like from eight Australian bases including Norfolk Island. The Russian Su-57 has this combat radius. Indonesia may purchase this aircraft. (Map from MapDevelopers)

What an 1,800 km combat radius covers

Australia showing overlapping 1,800 km combat radius bubbles from four bases. The X-Bat, Ghost Bat, GCAP & F-47 are supposed to have a combat radius of about 1,800 km.

The B-21: 5,000km combat radius

The B-21 combat radius is over 5,000km and would cover our whole region from one base near Alice.

Stealthy maritime strike aircraft

Below are some modern long-range aircraft Australia might consider to replace surface warships. (Current Australian aircraft included for comparison)

Note that any and all aircraft should be distributed and hidden in many bases to avoid pre-emptive attacks.

Any aircraft needs to be actually owned by Australia and have a deep store of parts in this country – unlike the F-35.

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Option	Dependency	Combat radius*	Notes
New Aircraft?
B-21	USA	5,000 km	May not be available to Australia.
X-BAT UCAV	USA but maybe manufactured here?	1,800 km or 3,700 km if used as a missile	In development. Launch from anywhere – runway independent
Ghost Bat MQ-28 UCAV	USA but mostly manufactured here already (8 built)	1,800 km or 3,700 km if used as a missile	Designed to accompany crewed fighters. Needs a runway.
GCAP	UK, Japan, Italy	1,800 km (?)	In development – in-service from 2035
F-47	USA	1,800 km (?)	In development. May not be available to Australia
Su-57M1	Russia	1,250 km	Medium stealth. Not an option currently due to Russia’s war with Europe
J20, J36, etc.	China		Not considered
Current Aircraft
P8 Poseidon	Australia	~4,000 km	No stealth – Boeing 737**
F/A-18E/F	Australia	740 km	No stealth**
F-35A	Australia	500 km	Stealthy but short range

*Combat radius on internal fuel with weapons. (These are very rubbery figures and would depend on the mission and payload.)

**Non-stealthy aircraft can not credibly threaten aircraft carrier fleets.

American F-47 & B-21

B-21 long-range stealth bomber

B-21 stealth bomber. These could be based in central or southern Australia and provide anti-ship coverage of the whole continent and maritime zone without refuelling. May not be available to Australia. About 10 produced annually which is not enough for the USAF.
Proposed F-47 NGAD fighter. Unlikely to be available to Australia and/or have major strings attached.

The X-BAT UCAV

The X-BAT is a radical new AI-piloted Uncrewed Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) being proposed by Shield AI.

If these could these be manufactured in Australia they might be an option.

This UCAV launches and lands vertically so needs no runway. This is a great advantage as runways would be destroyed early in a modern conflict. X-BATs could be launched from Australia’s islands if necessary to add range.

The X-BAT doesn’t need to carry heavy and complex undercarriage.

Other key features include:

Modular construction
High stealth
Over 3,700 km total range
Could be used as a missile for high-value targets
Large weapons capacity
First flight 2026
Production 2029

GCAP: The Global Combat Air Programme

GCAP: Twice the range, payload and stealth of the F-35 (ASPI)

The GCAP is a collaboration between the UK, Japan & Italy to develop a modern fighter with twice the payload and three times the range of the F-35. Germany and Canada may also be involved.

Aircraft hidden in multiple bases around Australia can provide a more survivable deterrent to hostile superpowers than slow moving frigates with limited magazines.

Australia will need long-range stealth aircraft to penetrate the defences of hostile fleets.

The GCAP Tempest is being designed to fulfil this role. Australia should join the project now to ensure Australia’s range and payload requirements are accommodated and to see if parts can be manufactured in some Australian electorates.

The first flight of the Tempest demonstrator is expected to take place by the end of 2027.

(The joint venture developing GCAP is called Edgewing.)

Russian Su-57

Su-57M ‘Felon’ (IndoMiliter)

A sudden change of leadership in Russia may make this an option. Any new leadership in Moscow could be looking to quickly find markets for it’s military equipment if it wanted to stop the war with Europe without collapsing Russia’s war-focussed economy.

The Su-57M1 ‘Felon’ has adequate stealth, impressive range and internal weapons and would be well suited to anti-ship role.

It now also has more efficient engines, stealthier exhaust nozzles, DIRCM and other upgrades. Indonesia may buy them, as may India. Maximum range is 3,500 km. 10 to 20 produced annually.

Russian aircraft are well suited for the many austere airfields scattered around Australia. Note that Russia was offering to let India build Su-57 under license including the AL-51F-1 engines and source code. This might be an option for Australia. We may want to use the Sukhoi airframe with other avionics and Australian made radars.

Chinese aircraft

Not considered at this stage.

Europe, Türkiye & South Korea

Besides the GCAP, no other suitable advanced long-range aircraft as yet.

Most fighters from these small countries are designed for short-range combat missions.

Cost of aircraft vs. warships

This uses highly speculative cost data from Wikipedia and rubbery currency exchange data. Even so, it does show that a lot of aircraft could be purchased for the price of one frigate.

Asset	Cost $A million	Quantity / Frigate
Hunter Class Frigate	4000	1
B-21	1000	4
GCAP	?	?
Su-57	70	~50
X-Bat	40	~100

Distribute and hide

A simple All Shelter hangar to hide an aircraft from pervasive satellite surveillance.

Superpowers continuously surveil everywhere so all military assets must be hidden. There should be multiple hangars from every aircraft supplemented with decoy mock-ups that look like the real thing from a satellite.